Bureau Takes Last Look At Job Vacancies

Sydney Morning Herald

Friday June 27, 2008

Clancy Yeates and Jacob Saulwick

THE Australian Bureau of Statistics has revealed - possibly for the last time - that the tight job market has driven the number of job vacancies to a record high.

The bureau is cutting back on the number and scope of some surveys due to budget cuts.

"It is ironic that cutbacks at the [bureau] are causing a serious erosion of our statistical knowledge of the Australian economy just when the uncertainty about our short-term economic future has increased," said the chief economist at BT Financial Group, Chris Caton.

The number of jobs available to be filled increased by 3.4 per cent in the three months before May, after a fall of 2.7 per cent in the previous quarter.

The jump showed the labour market remained strong despite the slowing economy.

Financial market economists said that although the statistic was prone to wild movements, it played a useful role in predicting future jobs growth.

"This is one of the better leading indicators of employment growth and it seems to be telling us that the moderation in employment growth in the second half of 2008 is likely to be modest at best," the co-head of Australian economics at ANZ Bank, Sally Auld, said.

The survey pointed to some weakness in areas subject to rising interest rates. The biggest falls in job vacancies were in accommodation, cafes and restaurants and in retail.

The chief economist at Lehman Brothers, Stephen Roberts, said the volatility of the statistic could be a warning sign of the coming slowdown.

"It's a classic indication of a turning point towards a slower-paced labour market when you get that volatility from quarter to quarter," he said.

But Rob Henderson, the chief economist at NabCapital, said the survey was of limited use to economists. "People have stopped watching it because it's not an indicator we're going to get any more information from," he said.

The bureau will also reduce the scope of the labour force survey, but has said key figures like the national unemployment rate would remain statistically robust.

© 2008 Sydney Morning Herald

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